The news programs get noisy at some point of time every year. It is just caused by North Korea’s provocation. North Korea has provoked many countries when there is a crucial anniversary regarding to the Kim family. The range of their provocation includes not only physical response but also “the war of words” to upset other countries. Last April, the controversy over the “crisis on the Korean Peninsula,” which coincided with Kim Il-sung’s day of birth, shrank gradually with nothing happening. However, in July, North Korea launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile(ICBM), and then a new “crisis on the Korean Peninsula” came to rise. Under these circumstances where North Korea’s ability to launch rockets has improved, many countries, including U.S.A. and Japan, think “we could really get attacked,” and then the scale of the crisis becomes much bigger. Compared with the past, how about finding out how “the August crisis on the Korean Peninsula” is different?
After the ICBM was Launched
Launch of the ICBM in North Korea
On July 4th, North Korea launched an ICBM towards the East sea in Pyongan Province. An ICBM is a missile on which a nuclear warhead can be installed and can reach from one continent to another. Due to its tremendous power, the whole world cannot help but wait in fear over the launching of the ICBM in North Korea.
At first, when the U.S, heard news of the launching of the ICBM, the U.S government questioned if North Korea really launched it, their techniques for fling missiles have been just for short distances, not long. However, North Korea claimed that their ICBM flew 930km and reached an altitude of 2,800km. Also, they said that they had focused on the importance of it escaping the atmosphere and testing the separation techniques. Therefore, the U.S government thought it more likely for North Korea to commit provocation than ever before, so they reacted against the attitude of North Korea. Despite these circumstances, North Korea launched its second ICBM on the night of July 28th. According to ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff, the height record of the second ICBM in North Korea was much better than that of the first.
Tough Statements of President Trump.
Due to the launching of ICBMs twice in a month, it was no wonder that U.S. President Trump became bad tempered. Lindsay Graham, who is a member of Congress and close to Trump, made an appearance on a TV show, and delivered Trump’s opinion indirectly, such as “It is better going to war with North Korea rather than letting North Korea develop long-range missiles,” and “It is much more important to get rid of North Korea’s government than the removal of North Korean nuclear weapons” Besides, “It is better not to threaten us. Otherwise, they might face huge backfire, the biggest the world has ever met before.” Since his inauguration as President, Trump continues to grow more aggressive than ever before.
The Escalating Atmosphere of War
North Korea’s Missile Threat to Attack Guam.
North Korea has become confident of their missiles’ success. Having a threatening atmosphere after Trump used the aggressive words above-mentioned, North Korea announced, through a spokesman of the government, “We will commit military provocation towards Guam where nuclear weapons of the U.S. government are concentrated.” Also, “the U.S government will be able to recognize our (North Korea) military power first” After North Korea designated a certain area in the U.S, not only residents of Guam but the US showed fear in regard to North Korea’s provocation. It comes from the feeling of insecurity that the U.S. people might feel if North Korea succeeds into inventing missiles that are able to reach Guam or the continental US. Also, “the war of words” has gradually extended so in this process, anxiety has come to grow.
Preventive War
Under these circumstances, some U.S politicians have argued that the U.S military will have to practice a “Preventive War,” because North Korea continues to provoke them with their missiles. In the U.S, the National Security Advisor Mc Master said that “We will prepare for all military options caused by North Korea’s continuous nuclear threats towards the U.S. A “Preventive War” is war starting with a preemptive attack when it is advantageous to attack the enemy first and also its timing is good. Before the continental U.S. becomes endangered by nuclear weapons of North Korea, the U.S. army will be able to attack North Korea’s major nuclear facility in advance. This “Preventive War” has a huge force consisting of the Navy, the Army, and the Air Force that can be deployed on the battlefield, so preparation for the “Preventive War” is a powerful warning message to North Korea.
Stances of Each Country
Japan
The second ICBM, which was launched on July 28th, fell into the sea near Japan, and its wreckage that was floating in the sea was found by Japanese TV broadcasting networks. The anxiety of Japan grew. North Korea usually launched their missiles toward the East Sea, and most of them fell into the Exclusive Economic Zone of Japan, so many Japanese thought that residential districts could get attacked by missiles, such as ICBMs. Japan held a national security meeting and showed signs of sensitivity to missiles.
China
After North Korea conducted ICBM launching, the United States and China condemned the move of North Korea with one voice. In the case of the United States, they condemned North Korea through the “word” like “time bomb”, however, China continued to be silent and then said that they would focus on communication to solve the problem. This stance is not different to what China has shown in the past. It seems that China agonizes how it would react to the problem of North Korea as the second world power. However, these ICBM launchings are not just small things to China. In the whole world, the responsibility of China has been emphasized between North Korea and other countries, because China is one of the closest countries to North Korea. Therefore, this huge provocation of North Korea could be larger burden for China.
Korea
One of the Moon Jae-in Government policies toward North Korea was “cooperation through conversations” However, North Korea has acted proudly to launch ICBMs, and “the war of words” between North Korea and the United States has become more frequent. Under these circumstances, many predicted that if a war breaks out between the two countries, the Korean Peninsula will suffer the worst blow. As anxiety grew among many Korean, the Korean President Moon-Jae-in declared at a press interview “There will never again be war in the Korean Peninsula and it is absolutely necessary to get consent from the Korean Government if someone wants to conduct military acts in the Korean Peninsula.
Difficult to Predict
At the end of August, North Korea launched a long-range missile again. This missile surpassed Japan, and fell into the Pacific Ocean near Fukuoka, Japan. In addition, on September 3rd, North Korea went through with the 6th nuclear test. They propagated “Our test for the hydrogen bomb that can be planted inside ICBM was completely successful.” It is anything but confirmed that North Korea truly tested the experiment for the hydrogen bomb. There is only their “claim.” Some experts just doubt that the real reason North Korea conducted the experiment was to be recognized as a nuclear power to the whole world.
After these provocations, the government of Korea, the U.S., and Japan showed different responses. U.S. President Trump said, on his twitter account, “The Korean Government has known that it is of no use showing a soft response to North Korea through this case.” About this, the Korean government declared that they will seek to solve the denuclearization of North Korea peacefully. Meanwhile, the two leaders of the U.S. and Japan have kept close relations since the 6th nuclear test of North Korea. According to NHK reports, both leaders agree with the perception that they have to intensify their pressure on North Korea.
Since the Korean Peninsula was completely divided 64 years ago, the situation in Northeast Asia has continued to change. After North Korea developed its nuclear weapons program, the volume of the noise has grown, and this crisis on the Korean Peninsula seems to be one of them. Many domestic experts have confidently claimed that the chances of a war are converging at zero because the friction between North Korea and the United States is similar to the usual occurrence. However, I think that it is the reality of the divided nation that we should not rest assured. The South Korean government needs to keep watch over the relationship between North Korea and the United States, China, and Japan, and maintain a cautious attitude.
Park Ji-yeon
std03080@cau.ac.kr