Do you know where the largest dam in the world is? It is the Three Gorges Dam in China. About 1.3 million tourists each year visit the dam, which is a famous attraction in China. The enormous scale and grandeur of the dam also symbolize China's economic growth. However, the recent flooding in China has raised concerns that the dam may not be safe. There is a belief around the world that Three Gorges Dam will collapse. There are also many negative predictions that the collapse of the world's largest dam will cause tremendous damage in its aftermath. Why has this assumption come up? Let's look at what the Three Gorges Dam is, including its problems, rumors, and prospects of its collapse.
What is the Three Gorges Dam?
The Three Gorges Dam is a hydroelectric dam which is located on the Yangtze River, which flows through central China. It was named after the fact that water in the upper reaches of the river passes through three rocky gorges. The dam was planned when Sun Yat-sen who led the Chinese Revolution ruled and was the largest engineering project undertaken since the Great Wall. The dam is 2,335m long, more than 10 times longer than the 221m of the Hoover Dam in the U.S. and has 39 billion tons of storage capacity. It also comes to a height of 181m, with a maximum water level of 175m, and a power generation capacity of 22.4 million kW. The dam was designed to prevent flood damage from the Yangtze river. The Yangtze River basin suffers from regular flooding. Over the past 2,000 years, 216 heavy floods have been recorded. In the summer of 1931, floods killed 145,000 people and more than 1,800 in 1998. To reduce such damage, the Chinese government announced its plans to build the Three Gorges Dam in 1992, which was completed in 2009.
Problems of the Three Gorges Dam
Environmental Destruction
Even before the dam's construction, many environmental experts around the world, including some in China, said that the project would trigger an increase in environmental pollution. In fact, it caused massive environmental damage. Hundreds of factories, mines, and garbage dumps were flooded and instead large industrial centers were built. This resulted in the reservoir being flooded with industrial discharge, silt, pollutants, and waste. The erosion of the reservoir and riverbanks have caused landslides and threatened the world's largest fishing industry in the East China Sea. CNN reported the water level rose to 135m, causing landslides that killed 24 people, destroyed 346 homes, and damaged 20 ships in 2003. International Rivers experts have argued that the project may have recently worsened droughts by preventing smooth water supplies critical to the ecosystem and downstream users by creating a microclimate at the huge reservoir. According to Reuters, in 2011, the Chinese government acknowledged that the project had caused extensive social and environmental damage, promising an additional budget of 124 billion yuan.
Occurrence of Migrants
The construction of the Three Gorges Dam flooded two cities and 1,680 villages along the Yangtze River. To construct such a huge reservoir in the dam, about 1.4 million people had to vacate the area. Their old houses abandoned, communities disappeared, and farmland flooded during the process. Those displaced complained about insufficient compensation afterwards, and a lack of jobs in their new areas. According to KBS, at most 2 million people were paid the cost far less for migration and compensation than they were promised. The local government was also accused of embezzling resettlement funds and using excessive force to quell protests. In 2013 the Chinese government admitted that some of the funds had been embezzled or misused. According to Chen Guojie, a scholar at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the income of migrants decreased by 20% after the relocation because they forcibly abandoned their previously fertile flatland.
Rumors of the Three Gorges Dam Collapse
Previous Rumor of the Three Gorges Dam Collapse
According to Reuters, Google Earth images of the Three Gorges Dam created concerns that the dam could collapse in 2019. Chinese netizens argued that the dam was deformed based on the Google Earth photos. Rumors spread through social media site Weibo that the deformation of it implies the imminent collapse of the dam. In response, People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, reported that the photo was manipulated, and the rumors were groundless. In fact, the 1975 Banqiao Dam Failure in Henan Province due to Typhoon Nina also supported the rumor of the collapse. As the Huai River basin flooded over three days, a series of dams including the Banqiao Dam collapsed in August 1975. More than 200,000 people were killed, 6.8 million homes destroyed, 1.25 million ha of farmland were flooded, and 11 million people were left homeless due to the incident. According to Chinese hydrologist Wang Weiluo, 80% of the dams in China are reported to be defective, and the Banqiao Dam had a storage capacity of 492 million tons, which is one-eightieth the size of the Three Gorges Dam. With these facts known, doubts continue to be raised over the Three Gorges Dam collapse.
2020 Rumor of the Three Gorges Dam Collapse by Great Flood in China
According to CCTV, China's state-run broadcast, the Three Gorges Dam opened its floodgates for the first time this year on June 29th due to heavy rainfall caused by the great flood. On July 29th, China's Ministry of Emergency Management announced flood damage statistics on its website stating that: from June 1st to July 28th, a total of 54.81 million flood victims occurred in 27 provinces, with 158 people killed or missing. Floods and landslides caused an estimated 410,000 houses to collapse or be damaged and 5.28 million ha of farmland to be lost. The estimated damage amounts to 144.43 billion yuan (about 20.925 billion U.S. dollars on August 19th). Compared with the past five years, the number of flood victims has increased by 23.4% and property damage increased by 13.8%. The risk of the Yangtze River basin flooding continues as more and more water flows into the river due to the flooding, which leads to the dam. On July 28th, the water level of the dam was 163.01m, only 12m lower than its maximum of 175m. This is a dangerous level, which is continues to cause concerns over Three Gorges Dam. After the great flood in China, the message “The Three Gorges Dam is about to collapse. People living down in Yichang City should evacuate immediately” spread throughout Chinese social media on July. It was reported that Huang Xiaocun, a researcher at the China Institute of Architecture and Science, wrote the message, which made many Chinese citizens nervous. Huang denied that he wrote it, and the Chinese government tracked down the account. Also, the government explained the rumor, saying, "The Three Gorges Dam is robust even if the water level reaches 175m due to a great flood." However, the world's media also raised concerns about the dam. In an article titled ‘Worst Flooding in Decades Raises Concerns Over China's Three Gorges Dam’, the Wall Street Journal expressed concern about the dam, citing a China’s Ministry of Water Resources official's opinion that there is not enough capacity for the massive rainwater in the dam. In an article titled ‘Record flooding Raises Questions About China's Three Gorges Dam’, Reuters argued that the Three Gorges Dam is not able to cope with the great flooding. According to Taiwan News, a hydrologist Wang Weiluo said that the dam could collapse at any time and its safety is in doubt. He pointed out that the dam's design, construction, and quality inspection were all carried out by the same group and that the project ended too quickly. Ye Jianchun, Chinese Vice Minister of Water Resources, also confessed at a press conference on June 10th that water levels in at least 148 rivers in China have exceeded warning levels, which proves that Three Gorges Dam has limited impact on flood control, supporting the rumor.
Expected Damage of the Three Gorges Dam Collapse
The Chinese government ensured the public that the Three Gorges Dam is built strong enough and will not collapse. However, according to Taiwan News, a simulation video of the collapse of the dam became widespread, which was later deleted by the government. According to the video, it is expected that Yichang city, located 50 kilometers from the dam would be destroyed in 30 minutes if the dam collapses. It is assumed that the flooding water levels could reach 15-20m, and the water submerge the cities along the Yangtze River at a minimum speed of 60kph. Later, the video showed that even large cities like Yidu, Jingzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing will be submerged. Certainly, tremendous damage is expected to happen in China if the dam collapses. The Yangtze River, where the dam is located, is surrounded by big cities and granaries such as Wuhan, Nanjing, and Shanghai. According to the JoongAng Ilbo, if the dam collapses, these areas could be submerged, at least 5-600,000 people could be buried and at least 400 million could be displaced. TBS reported the economic damage is estimated to come to about 8 trillion won. The collapse will adversely affect neighboring countries as well. Especially, Korea is expected to suffer significant damage. There is already more than 70,000 tons of efflux from the Yangtze River in southern China on July 26th, which will result in a low-salt water entering the sea near Korea. Then osmotic pressure control of aquatic organisms would be negatively affected, which leads to stresses on their life. On July 30th, South Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries said a field survey will take place on August 4th, as low salt water is expected to flow into the coast of Jeju Island. Although concerns over the collapse are being raised all over the world, including China, the Chinese government has not come up with any response or countermeasures.
The Three Gorges Dam was built to reduce endemic flood damage near the Yangtze river in China, despite the problems of its construction. Although it seemed to play its role as a dam and a hydroelectric power plant well amid the controversy, the recent flooding in China has threatened the highest water level of the world's largest dam and led to rumors that the dam could collapse at any time. The collapse of several dams caused by previous flood and the persistent rumors of the collapse have further deepened concerns over the dam. As this is the largest dam in the world, the impact of its collapse will be massive. Will the Three Gorges Dam be really collapse? What will be the future of the dam?