Following U.S. President Joe Biden's announcement on April 10 that he plans to seek re-election in the 2024 presidential election, the U.S. political world has shifted its focus towards the upcoming election, which pits former President Trump against Joe Biden once again. In particular, the economic effects and political significance of "Bidenomics[1]," which President Biden is utilizing in his full-fledged re-election campaign is being closely watched. Let's take a look at the specifics of Bidenomics, how it has affected the U.S. and global economies, and how it may serve as a variable in the 2024 presidential election.

 What Is Bidenomics?

Biden's Key Items for Re-election

           During a speech in Chicago, Illinois, on June 28th, President Biden criticized the failed trickle-down approach[2]and the downward economic development policies of the Trump administration. He stated, "The trickle-down approach failed the middle class…It failed America… It blew up the deficit. It increased inequity..." Furthermore, he introduced 'Bidenomics' as a way to revive the American Dream explaining that “Bidenomics is about building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down.” Biden mentioned several economic policies during his tenure, including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. What are the specifics of "Bidenomics," which Biden has introduced as a vision for America to regain the glory of the "American Dream"?

3 Key Pillars of Bidenomics

           On June 28^th, the whitehouse.com published a report titled, ‘Bidenomics Is Working: The President’s Plan Grows the Economy from the Middle Out and Bottom Up-Not the Top’. As Biden emphasized in his speech in Chicago, the report explicitly stated that a bottom-up economy, rather than the top-down economy deployed by the Trump administration, is the best way for the United States to grow its economy. The statement also included the ‘Three Key Pillars,’ which are the core content of Bidenomics.

The first pillar is ‘making smart public investments in America,’ referring to public investment policies promoted by Biden that can attract much private investment. He clarified that such public investments are concentrated in areas such as clean energy, infrastructure improvement, and semiconductors which will benefit the long-term national security and economy of the United States. In the article, Biden cited as evidence that since he took office, approximately $500 billion in private investment agreements have been signed in the above core areas, and clean energy-related jobs have increased in every U.S. state.

The second pillar, 'empowering and educating workers to grow the middle class,' reflects Bidenomics' belief that when national policies safeguard the rights of workers, the benefits of economic growth are shared evenly and broadly. According to American Progress, a domestic media outlet, the Biden administration has announced a significant investment in job skills training programs and apprenticeship training programs; more than any previous government.

The third pillar, 'promoting competition to lower costs and help entrepreneurs and small businesses thrive,' asserts that Bidenomics recognizes the need for healthy and fair competition between sectors for the market to function effectively and ensure that workers and consumers receive appropriate benefits. Biden has stated that he has made efforts to pursue Bidenomics in a fiscally responsible manner. According to the White House's Fact Sheet[3], in his first 2 years in office, Biden led a reduction of approximately $1.7 trillion in the budget deficit.

 The Biden Administration’s Influence on the United States Economy

Job Creation & Manufacturing Revival

Biden took office during a challenging time for the U.S. economy, facing significant stagnation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and millions of people in unemployment. He has stuck to an economic policy approach that focuses on lifting the economy from the bottom or middle to the top. Biden emphasized the need to grow the U.S. economy and create good jobs to enable the middle class and less fortunate individuals to climb the ladder of success. He proposed increasing investments in the American people and reforming tax laws to make the economy more competitive. According to the Fact Sheet provided by the White House in February 2023, since Biden assumed office, over 12 million jobs have been created, including more than 800,000 manufacturing jobs. The unemployment rate has also reached its lowest level in 54 years. 'The Biden-Harris Economic Blueprint' report published by the White House in November of the previous year stated that compared to pre-pandemic levels, household mortgage delinquency and bankruptcy rates decreased, and the likelihood of obtaining health insurance increased for U.S. households. Biden pursued manufacturing boom policies to revitalize the U.S. economy without leaving anyone behind. He invested in new factories and manufacturing lines to ensure that even low-skilled workers had access to well-paying jobs. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau in April 2023, investment in manufacturing construction reached $189 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, more than double the pre-pandemic levels. Factory construction and expansion were particularly rapid in Western regions like Colorado and New Mexico, and in manufacturing-intensive areas in the south-central region. Miki Banu, a mechanical engineering professor at the University of Michigan, remarked, "We waited for so long to have these kinds of initiatives," and that, "This is probably the first time in my life when I've seen so many resources become available, which can let us put our ideas into practice."        

Biden's Long-Term Challenges: Addressing Inflation

           According to price inflation data from the U.S. Federal Reserve on July 12, price increases are approaching normal levels, and wage growth has far exceeded price growth for the first time in two years. On the same day, Time reported that this was "the most hopeful news for the economy since prices spiked 16 months ago”. A solution to U.S. inflation and economic recovery will help Biden’s reelection. In response to the prolonged recession and inflation, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) in August 2022 and has made many efforts to reduce the budget deficit and invest in energy production and manufacturing through historically large investments. In June-a month before inflation rebounded, 56% of Americans were skeptical of Biden's economic policies, according to a poll by global pollster Yahoo-YouGov. Since persistent inflation has been one of the major obstacles to public perception of Biden's presidency, this economic recovery and subsequent economic performance will have a major impact on the 2024 presidential election, along with abortion, gun ownership, and refugee issues, according to The Wall Street Journal's July 26 press release, "Your Guide to the Presidential Election in 2024”.

Prospect for United States Presidential Election, 2024

Candidates for Next Presidential Election & Election Odds

           On November 15, 2022, Trump officially launched his third presidential campaign. He said the current Biden administration was ‘in decline’ and touted his administration as a ‘golden age.’ What’s more, he declared "America's comeback starting right now." However, he faces obstacles due to several scandals and allegations during his previous term. On April 25, 2023, the current president-Biden, also announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. In a video titled 'Freedom' posted on his social media account, Biden said, "The question we are facing is whether in the years ahead we have more freedom or less freedom. More rights or fewer." He emphasized his determination to run for reelection, stating, "This is not a time to be complacent. That's why I'm running for reelection.” Besides Trump and Biden, several other candidates have announced their intentions to run for the presidency in 2024. Different politicians have thrown their hats into the ring including Ron DeSantis, and Mike Pence from the Republican Party and Marianne Williamson, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the Democratic Party, as well as Third Party candidate Cornel West.

However, on August 1, The New York Times and University of Siena surveyed 1,329 U.S. voters and found that that 86% of respondents expressed support for either President Biden or former President Trump in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. This is consistent with nearly all previous American elections focusing only on the two main parties, and shows that public opinion in this year's presidential election will also likely focus only on the race between Trump and Biden.

Strong Rematch: Trump vs Biden

Former President Trump is indeed a strong obstacle to Biden's reelection victory. Despite his defeat in the 2020 election, Trump received approximately 74 million votes even with his failure to respond to the new coronavirus and numerous controversies during his term. This figure is approximately 11 million higher votes than Trump received when he was elected president four years earlier, meaning that he received the most votes of any Republican presidential candidate in history. Although Trump lost the 2020 presidential election, it still suggests that his ‘America First’ ideology and messaging still hold significant influence in American society. Time also predicted that the upcoming rematch between Biden and Trump is expected to feature a clash of their respective economic policy approaches. According to Time magazine's expectation, the economy will likely remain the number one issue in voters' minds during the campaign and on Election Day. Bryan DeAngelis, a former Democratic strategist, mentioned in an interview with Time, "The economy is always number one in voters' minds. So, barring something unforeseen happening in the future, I expect this will still be issue number one on the campaign trail and then on Election Day."

On the other hand, according to the Five Thirty-Eight poll average at the end of June, Biden's approval rating had slightly dipped below 42%. Time magazine published a July 12 report titled "Inflation Dropped Again in June. Here's What That Means for Biden," emphasizing that the less satisfactory approval rating despite record job creation numbers and an unemployment rate indicates that it may take more time for the public to feel the success of his economic policies. Therefore, the inflation rate drop at this time could be a crucial variable that will influence Biden's success or failure in the 2024 election. We need to keep watching whether this decline in inflation is permanent or only a temporary phenomenon.