On August 23, a Wagner Group private plane carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group (a Russian state-funded private military company), and the Wagner Group leadership from Moscow to St. Petersburg crashed in a suspicious accident, killing everyone on board. The international community has suspected that Prigozhin's death was the result of an assassination attempt by President Putin. What is the truth about this incident and what impacts will Prigozhin's death have inside Russia and on the international community?

1. Wagner Group Private Plane Crash

a. The Mysterious Crash and Death of Prigozhin

           A video capturing the crash of the plane carrying Prigozhin was uploaded to Prigozhin's official Telegram channel. In the video, the aircraft Prigozhin was on appeared to crash with its left-wing missing. An hour after this report, Russian disaster and aviation authorities launched an investigation team to confirm Prigozhin's death. It appears that most of the founders and leadership of the Wagner Group were also involved in this incident. According to a CNN report, the aircraft involved in the crash, an Embraer Legacy 600, did not appear to have any malfunctions just before the crash. However, Flighttradar24, a global airline flight tracking system, confirmed that the plane in question had been flying in an unusual manner for 30 seconds prior to the crash with significant altitude fluctuations leading up to the crash. Given these suspicious circumstances, there is growing speculation worldwide that the crash may not have been a complete accident but instead could be linked to an assassination plot involving Russian President Putin. Such suspicions arise because of Putin's relationship with the Wagner Group, which was strained, prior to the accident.

b. Russia’s Relationship With the Wagner Group

           The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company (PMC) that was prominently active in supporting Russian forces around the world, from the Donbass invasion of Ukraine that began in 2014 to other insurgencies in Africa and the Middle East. Prigozhin was both the founder and leader of the Wagner Group and was known as a close associate of Putin, but was also considered one of Putin's most significant rivals. As a group closely aligned with Putin's interests, the Wagner Group played an active role in supporting Russian influence. However, in June, during their participation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they initiated a rebellion against Putin's regime. The rebellion was primarily driven by discontent with Putin's efforts to curb the influence of the Wagner Group. The Russia-Ukraine conflict had unexpectedly prolonged and it leads to an increase in the group's power and influence within Russia, which the Russian government viewed with unease. Angered by this, Prigozhin even promoted a ‘March For Justice’ in Moscow, beginning on June 23 with the occupation of Rostov-on-Don, the southern region of Russia. However, in response to the rebellion, Putin took a hardline stance, even referring to Prigozhin as a ‘traitor’ in a video statement. And Prigozhin, in order to avoid bloodshed, returned to the field in return for assurances of safety for Wagner's mercenaries. While the rebellion was quelled, domestic insurrection during wartime can be seen as a severe threat, potentially motivating Putin to seek revenge against Prigozhin, as reported by The Guardian[1] on August 23rd.

2. Suspect of Assassination Plot

a.  ‘Active Measures’ From the Soviet Union

           Prigozhin's death has once again brought Russian ‘active measures’ back into the spotlight. Active measures refer to any overt or covert operations carried out by state secret services from Imperial Russia, to the Soviet Union, and now Russia, in order to eliminate traitors and political opponents of the supreme leader and president. Historically, active measures, or assassination operations, have been used in Russia as a means of maintaining the authority of top leaders. There are numerous cases that have raised suspicions of active measures. According to reports by the U.S. media outlet Axios[2], individuals such as Litvinenko, a former KGB whistleblower, former Russian spy Skripal, and Russian journalist and human rights activist Politkovskaya are among those who have been suspected of being targeted in assassination attempts or actual assassinations linked to Putin's active measures. The Kremlin, of course, has consistently denied all of these allegations.

b. Evidence to Support Assassination Suspicions

           The recent plane crash incident has also led many international media outlets to implicitly consider it a result of Putin's active measures. Also, various evidence supports this. The first piece of evidence is related to the type of aircraft involved in the crash. The Guardian pointed out that the aircraft in question, the 'Embraer Legacy 600,' had experienced only one accident in its 20 years of operation. At the time of the crash, the aircraft's left wing was completely detached, indicating that the explosion was powerful enough to separate the wing from the fuselage. Eyewitnesses and experts who reviewed video footage of the incident suggested the possibility of a bomb planted inside the aircraft or an external missile attack when explaining the mid-air rupture of the plane. Furthermore, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the Russian government bulldozed the crash site, ignoring international safety regulations regarding preservation of accident sites.

           There are even indications that Prigozhin acted as if he knew his life was in danger before the crash. The Wagner Group Linked Telegram channel released a video showing Prigozhin three or four days before the crash. In the video, Prigozhin stated, "For everyone discussing whether I'm alive or not and how I'm doing. It's currently a weekend in the second half of August 2023. I'm in Africa." The WSJ also reported that Prigozhin installed a variety of defensive equipment on his private plane and took steps to avoid the flight tracking system. These pieces of evidence are gradually increasing conviction in the theory of Putin's involvement in the assassination plot.

c. Why Putin is Suspected of Being Behind the Assassination

           If Putin did indeed order the assassination of Prigozhin, why did he do it? The most prominent reason was revenge against the recent rebellion. Additionally, Putin has a history of violently suppressing individuals who challenge his authority or pose a threat to his regime, as seen with figures like Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Igor Girkin. The Atlantic Council[3], an international think tank specializing in global affairs, provided several reasons for Putin's actions in their analysis. Daniel Fried, a prominent professor and fellow member of the Atlantic Council and former U.S. ambassador to Poland, predicted that Putin's political style of maintaining calm in crisis situations and removing opponents on his own terms and timing would strengthen his position and authority within Russia in the short term. The Wagner group's rebellion led to speculation that President Putin was vulnerable, but with Prigozhin's death, that speculation and the agitation in political circles died down. Brian Whitmore, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, noted that Putin would be forced to play politics of fear to stay in power. He stated, “Historically, political change comes to Russia when three factors are present: a divided elite (check), a dissatisfied public (check), and an absence of fear. If Prigozhin had been left unpunished, fear would have been removed from the equation and the regime would have been in peril.”

3. Reacts of Kremlin and International Societies

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has strongly denied the allegations of Putin's involvement in the assassination of Prigozhin. According to Russian state media TASS, Kremlin Palace spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "Now, naturally, there are many speculations over this plane crash and the tragic death of the passengers, including Yevgeny Prigozhin...The West is selling these speculations from a certain angle...All of them are absolute lies." In his first comments since Prigozhin's death, Putin also offered his sympathies to the families of the crash victims, but did not mention Prigozhin by name; he merely said. "He made serious mistakes in life. But he achieved results both for himself, and for the common good when I asked for it - like in the last few months." Biden, who was on vacation at the time, reacted to the news by saying, "I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised," sounding both resigned and suspicious of Putin's involvement. Ukrainian President Zelensky, in a conversation with CNN, stated that he would not negotiate with liars and dismissed the possibility of negotiating a ceasefire. He also said, "He killed Prigozhin, at least we all have this information and not any other." Based on Zelensky's remarks, it appears that peace negotiations or a ceasefire agreement in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has significant global economic and security implications, may not occur in the near future.

CU Boulder Today[4], a faculty column at the University of Colorado, pointed out that what historical context tells us best is that when there is a coup attempt, as in Russia today, there are many cracks in the system. They also criticized the use of assassination plots in the modern era as a very antiquated political tactic. Predicting future power transitions in Russia is likely to be challenging. However, it is essential to continue monitoring how the recent event of Prigozhin's death may impact Putin's rule in Russia and the Russia-Ukraine conflict moving forward.