Expert Opinion: Should the Korean Government Provide Lethal Weapons to Ukraine?

                                                                      By Prof. Kim Dong-hyun

Dept of Political Science & International Relations

1. From the perspectives of Just War Theory and Realism, what are the respective opinions on whether South Korea should support Ukraine with lethal weapons?

First, from the perspective of Just War Theory, it is considered right for South Korea not to support sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. On January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that military support is needed to help Ukraine win and protect democracy, and for lasting peace. However, currently, South Korea lacks enough national power to voluntarily support them with lethal weapons. If the Russo-Ukrainian war escalates, and if the pressure from NATO and the United States on Korea’s weapons support becomes more severe, it will become a problem that needs to be reconsidered.

Let’s look at the opinion from the perspective of Realism. The expected benefits of supporting Ukraine with weapons are the strengthening of the Korea-US alliance, and a high participation share in the reconstruction project after the end of the war. However, compared to the benefits, there are more disadvantages. If Korea supports or exports weapons to Ukraine, it is no different from saying that it will cut off diplomatic and economic relations with Russia. Before the war in 2021, the trade volume between Russia and South Korea was 34 trillion won. After the war began in 2022, it decreased by 22%, and if weapons support to Ukraine is carried out in this situation, it is expected that there will be a greater trade volume damage or severance. In addition, weapons support not only economically, but also diplomatically, turns against Russia. Among the four major powers surrounding the Korean Peninsula; the US, Japan, China, and Russia, the most neutral country around Korean Peninsula is Russia. This is because Russia can best mediate between North Korea, also working with China next to it, and South Korea with the US. After examining all that gains and losses, it is not realistically helpful to the national interest to provide weapons support to Ukraine.

2. What impact would South Korea’s support of lethal weapons to Ukraine and North Korea’s export of weapons to Russia have on the peace and security in Asia?

           Personally, I believe that if South Korea were to support Ukraine with lethal weapons, it would not pose a significant threat to the overall security of Asia. Collateral issues, such as economic cooperation between South Korea and Russia, outside of Asian peace and security, rather, would take the biggest hit.

           As for North Korea, although it is exporting weapons to Russia, this can be seen as a relatively low level of military cooperation. The reason North Korea exports weapons to Russia is to have overwhelming military power in Northeast Asia by receiving advanced weapons and military technology from Russia after cooperation. However, even if Russia receives North Korea’s support, it will not hand over as much as North Korea wants. This is because China is currently working to make North Korea its ally. Russia has maintained a diplomatic principle of acknowledging China’s influence within Northeast Asia and maintaining a balance of power. It is difficult to see that Russia will have close military or economic cooperation with North Korea to the extent that it aggravates China.

3. Considering South Korea’s position in the international community and its national interests, what role should South Korea play in the Russo-Ukrainian war?

           Looking at the opinions of various academics, conservative scholars tend to think that it is right to support them with weapons, while moderate or progressive scholars say that weapons should not be given. In my opinion, it is better for South Korea not to support Ukraine with weapons. The argument that South Korea has a history of receiving international aid in the Korean War, which is spoken in the Just War Theory, can be said to be somewhat idealistic. Moreover, in the Russo-Ukrainian war, South Korea is not a powerful country that can change the course of the war like the US. Instead, it is thought that the correct answer is to support Ukraine with non-lethal materials and military supplies which include combat rations, bulletproof helmets, bulletproof vests, and gas masks that are currently being used. This level of support seems appropriate when considering both t War Theory and Realism.

           The course of the Russo-Ukrainian War seems to be determined by the results of the U.S. presidential election in November. Until then, it is right for South Korea to maintain a neutral stance. With half a year left until election, there is no need for South Korea, a middle power, to aspire to play a special role. South Korea may not be able to become a ‘cool and fly’ country through immediate weapon support, but if you think about realistic national interests rather than ideals, it is a good method for South Korea to watch the situation in the long run.